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Friday, 21 November 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: The positive news for the Loonie continued at 8:30 when CPI beat expectations increasing to +0.1% when a -0.1% reading was anticipated. The core figure was +0.3% against expected +0.2%. The yearly figures moved to 1.8% headline and 2.3% core. Loonie picked up an additional 50 bps on this news and challenged the 1.12 level, yet was not able to break as the market know this release will not be enough to garner a change in outlook for the Bank of Canada.
We expect a range today of 1.1190 to 1.1290
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The U.S dollar rallied across the board Thursday closing in on 5 year highs on Bloomberg’s correlated spot index while touching a 7 year high against the Japanese Yen. A core CPI inflation report showed an increase in price pressures of 0.2%, a welcome reading as Wednesday''s FOMC minutes showed policy makers debated the possibility inflation may stagnate in the face of languid global growth. The 18 nation Euro crept downward as manufacturing purchases slipped suggesting business growth is weakening and adding further scope to increased QE measures across the embattled currency bloc.  As the gap between Central Bank Policies continues to widen the depreciation of the Yen and Euro are expected to continue. The Euro appears to have found significant technical support around 1.24 as the market looks for definitive guidance from the ECB as to when and in what form quantitative easing will intensify with attention keenly focused on the Mario Draghi as he addresses the European Banking Congress tonight. The Japanese Yen has slumped some 2.2% this week and is the worst performs of 10 developed market currencies. With 120.00 now firmly in sight we expect the downward spiral to continue into next week as attentions turn to BoJ governor Kuroda for insight into further stimulus measures on Tuesday.  
Data releases
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NZD Credit Card Spending
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GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing and MPC Member Miles Speaks
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

Foreign Real Estate Investing Do's and Don'ts

Bloomberg Television interview with Michael Ward, CEO, North America and Europe for USForex on getting the Best Exchange Rates when sending money abroad from the US plus his thoughts on what to look for when Buying Property Abroad and which global cities are popular right now. ⇒ watch video

Why is it that when I go into a currency vendor to send money I never get the rate on the news?

You may well think that you are being ripped off, but it is not always the case. In simple terms what you see on the news or in the paper or on yahoo finance is the Middle Rate or mid-rate. Some people want to buy a currency and some people want to sell a currency and there is a gap (or margin) between the price at which you buy and the price at which you sell. ⇒ read article

What makes sending money internationally so expensive?

There are a number of cost components to making and receiving international payments, most of which are far from transparent to customers: Currency fees, Transit fees, Correspondent bank fees etc ⇒ read article

BestExchangeRates in the PressSMH.com.au Money

“A check with the foreign-exchange comparison website bestexchangerates.net shows a big variation in the exchange rates available when sending money and buying cash.” SMH.com.au ⇒ read article

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