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Monday, 02 March 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: Looking to North America the main focus will be this morning’s Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending at 10:00. With no data on deck for Canada the market will be preparing for tomorrow’s release of GDP at 8:30 followed by the Bank of Canada Rate statement on Wednesday. With Poloz’s latest communication pointing towards a “wait and see” approach for now many of the bets for a second rate hike have moved to the sideline. That being said the market is still very leery of our Central Bankers communication and we may not see the reaction until it is a fact. You can’t blame them considering the numerous head fakes the market has endured lately with clarification coming weeks after the fact. With our Central Bank on hold I am optimistic the Loonie can gain some traction and move back to the mid 1.24’s this week. Unfortunately I do need to mention that this also depends on oil remaining it its current range of a $2.00 either side of the $5.00 per barrel mark. K.W.
We expect a range today of 1.2460 to 1.2540
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The US Dollar ended the week little changed Friday marking an eight straight monthly gain for the world’s base currency when measured against a basket of 6 major counterparts; as investors shrugged off a string of poor data sets throughout February on expectations the Fed will adjust its benchmark interest rate at some point this year. Preliminary fourth quarter GDP nudged above expectations writing in at 2.2% while consumer sentiment held near 8 year highs with investors’ expectations for consumer driven growth improving. Any advance was checked by a 13 point dip in Chicago PMI index and highlights an underlying vulnerability in the US manufacturing sector. It is however important to note that size of the depreciation hints at an anomaly with investors blaming poor weather, the closure of LA and Long Beach sea ports for delays in capital and a stronger dollar for decline in demand for US exports. Attentions this week turn to a raft of Central bank policy meetings with the Australian Reserve Bank, Canadian Central Bank, Bank of England and European Central Bank all due to release policy updates while Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report will be crucial in providing direction and governing expectations leading into the Fed’s March 17-18 assembly.
Data releases
AIG Manufacturing Index, MI inflation Gauge, New Home Sales, Company Operating profits and Commodity Prices              
NZD: No Data
Final Manufacturing          
GBP: Nationwide HPI, Manufacturing PMI, Met Lending to Individuals, Mortgage Approvals and M4 Money Supply
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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